This is a fascinating little video from a lecture by science writer Simon Singh. I don't want to divulge too much, so let's just say he takes a very well-known song and uses it as a vehicle through which we are shown just how susceptible many of us are; we can very easily believe something that actually isn't real, just based on our prejudices and expectations. These are emotions that manifest themselves every day in how we feel about things, and I think viewers of cable news programs are especially conditioned via methods similar to that used by Mr. Singh here.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Saturday, July 9, 2011
The Latest Jobs Report: A Real Kick in the Balls
I usually don't keep track of this stuff, only because I don't trust government statistics as far as I can throw 'em, but the media is abuzz with the latest jobs report, which is pretty dismal. I think that they were forecasting around 100 thousand new jobs created or thereabouts; only 18 thousand were actually created according to the report. Unemployment is now up to 9.2% (which is very conservative; the actual number is much higher).
I am confused as to why anyone in the halls of power (be it Washington or Wall Street) would expect that there would be any robust job creation whatsoever. I guess they have such a vested interest in believing their own bullshit or something. Between quantitative easing (creating money from thin air), the stimulus and all this other stuff, it is pathetic to think that this is the best that could have been done. I think that this is a big confidence killer for business, and for the population in general.
More than one person I've read of has compared these economic times to the Five Stages of Grief (the Kubler-Ross Model, which consists of denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance). For a long time, most of us have been in the "denial" phase. A lot of people I talk to about this always think that "things will get better"; I'm guessing it's based on the fact that we have had recessions before and have always bounced back, so we will just do the same this time. I see that starting to change, as more and more people begin to see that there will be no "recovery" coming for them, and then the anger phase sets in.
Along with the dismal jobs report, the corporate news media is talking about industries in which there is demand for workers. I strongly believe that this is another scam. Their goal is to trumpet these "growing industries" to the unemployed, get them to go back to school (taking out huge loans in the process), and create a glut of workers in that industry, which lowers the wages in that field.
This also ties in with all the bedlam concerning the "debt ceiling". If the ceiling isn't raised, or some deal is struck to significantly cut the deficit, many jobs in the public sector will be lost, making the unemployment problem much worse. But on the other hand, continued borrowing at the magnitude that we have been borrowing will lead to continued price shocks in energy and food, causing even more pain to the working class. I do think these two issues in tandem (debt ceiling and unemployment) will be a gamechanger.
I am confused as to why anyone in the halls of power (be it Washington or Wall Street) would expect that there would be any robust job creation whatsoever. I guess they have such a vested interest in believing their own bullshit or something. Between quantitative easing (creating money from thin air), the stimulus and all this other stuff, it is pathetic to think that this is the best that could have been done. I think that this is a big confidence killer for business, and for the population in general.
More than one person I've read of has compared these economic times to the Five Stages of Grief (the Kubler-Ross Model, which consists of denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance). For a long time, most of us have been in the "denial" phase. A lot of people I talk to about this always think that "things will get better"; I'm guessing it's based on the fact that we have had recessions before and have always bounced back, so we will just do the same this time. I see that starting to change, as more and more people begin to see that there will be no "recovery" coming for them, and then the anger phase sets in.
Along with the dismal jobs report, the corporate news media is talking about industries in which there is demand for workers. I strongly believe that this is another scam. Their goal is to trumpet these "growing industries" to the unemployed, get them to go back to school (taking out huge loans in the process), and create a glut of workers in that industry, which lowers the wages in that field.
This also ties in with all the bedlam concerning the "debt ceiling". If the ceiling isn't raised, or some deal is struck to significantly cut the deficit, many jobs in the public sector will be lost, making the unemployment problem much worse. But on the other hand, continued borrowing at the magnitude that we have been borrowing will lead to continued price shocks in energy and food, causing even more pain to the working class. I do think these two issues in tandem (debt ceiling and unemployment) will be a gamechanger.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
A Few Notes
It was my day off, so I spent it in my usual way, by going to the heart of Patchogue and visiting the library, the coffee house and the gym. On my way home, I noticed a couple of things:
The old 112 Video location, which has been abandoned for a few years now, is once again for rent (112 Video is an independent video store; it's still operating but has moved down the road into the next town, Patchogue. It has survived Blockbuster, pay-per-view on demand and appears to have survived Netflix, but will it survive the new form of Netflix, which is streaming video? Only time will tell, I guess.) Anyway, since it vacated its former premises on Route 112 in Medford, it has been rented out by businesses that have come and gone. It was a cabinet company, first, I think it might have lasted a month. Then, it was some kind of Turkish grocer and finally, it was a pool lounge. The latter two did not even open for business before they crumbled. I have seen this in other places, signs saying that a new business would be "COMING SOON", only to not come at all. I'm guessing that it's due to the ramifications of the economic crash of '08. Aspiring small business owners are likely finding it extremely difficult to get financing to open their businesses. They probably get an initial line of credit, enough to rent out the building and to make up signs, but further lines of credit to buy the other essentials peter out and they end up going bust before making their first dollar. It's a shame, especially that the billiards place did not come in. I'm becoming enamored of the game, playing it via video games and would like a place where I could learn it further.
Another thing I noticed as I was walking home on Horseblock Road (a decidedly unfriendly road for pedestrians, with nothing but ugly strip malls and big-boxes lining the landscape) was that there was a fender bender that appeared to be relatively minor. It was the side I was headed home on, so I had to cross. I was looking at it, and saw no less than 2 police cars and 2 emergency vehicles on the scene, for what looked like a typical fender-bender. This disproportionate response to minor accidents is quite the norm in my community. I wonder how we will be able to keep this going as our municipal finances keep circling the shitter and as oil prices continue to soar. I hope that as they do so, our local authorities and safety officers moderate their responses to incidents accordingly, only pulling out the big guns when lives are at stake.
The old 112 Video location, which has been abandoned for a few years now, is once again for rent (112 Video is an independent video store; it's still operating but has moved down the road into the next town, Patchogue. It has survived Blockbuster, pay-per-view on demand and appears to have survived Netflix, but will it survive the new form of Netflix, which is streaming video? Only time will tell, I guess.) Anyway, since it vacated its former premises on Route 112 in Medford, it has been rented out by businesses that have come and gone. It was a cabinet company, first, I think it might have lasted a month. Then, it was some kind of Turkish grocer and finally, it was a pool lounge. The latter two did not even open for business before they crumbled. I have seen this in other places, signs saying that a new business would be "COMING SOON", only to not come at all. I'm guessing that it's due to the ramifications of the economic crash of '08. Aspiring small business owners are likely finding it extremely difficult to get financing to open their businesses. They probably get an initial line of credit, enough to rent out the building and to make up signs, but further lines of credit to buy the other essentials peter out and they end up going bust before making their first dollar. It's a shame, especially that the billiards place did not come in. I'm becoming enamored of the game, playing it via video games and would like a place where I could learn it further.
Another thing I noticed as I was walking home on Horseblock Road (a decidedly unfriendly road for pedestrians, with nothing but ugly strip malls and big-boxes lining the landscape) was that there was a fender bender that appeared to be relatively minor. It was the side I was headed home on, so I had to cross. I was looking at it, and saw no less than 2 police cars and 2 emergency vehicles on the scene, for what looked like a typical fender-bender. This disproportionate response to minor accidents is quite the norm in my community. I wonder how we will be able to keep this going as our municipal finances keep circling the shitter and as oil prices continue to soar. I hope that as they do so, our local authorities and safety officers moderate their responses to incidents accordingly, only pulling out the big guns when lives are at stake.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Another Major Taliban Attack
This time, on a landmark Kabul hotel, in which 21 were killed, including the 9 insurgents. In a previous post, I spoke about how, a decade after the initial invasion of their country, the Taliban are still coordinating these skillful attacks against the coalition forces. While all of the attackers were killed, they left behind a trail of venomous carnage. Stories like this remind me of my reading on the Vietnam War, and lessons that we should have learned from that, such as that you can win virtually every battle and still lose to an opponent via a sheer force of will and a willingness to sacrifice anything and everything.
It also reminded me of something that someone said, I forget where I saw or read this. This person was speaking of 9/11 and said that the total budget for the plotting and implementation of the attack ran something like $500,000. He then contrasted that with U.S. government spending in response to 9/11, which numbers in the trillions. I don't think it requires much imagination to see where repeated instances of this would lead, to a country that spends itself into oblivion. Assuming that Bin Laden was the ringleader of the 9/11 attacks, he said that he wanted to engage the U.S. in economic warfare. Well, I think the end result was beyond his wildest dreams, and he might be well on his way to see his wish, albeit posthumously. Just think of how much it cost to train those NATO troops and Afghan soldiers who engaged in combat with the Taliban, as well as the helicopter and the weaponry that was used in this fight.
To close, a quote from one of Hamid Karzai's senior aides brings back memories. He referred to the attackers as "cowards", as Bush and many others did of the 9/11 attackers. As Bill Maher famously pointed out, risking your own life, no matter how fucked up the objectives, is not exactly cowardly. Many other things (depraved, demented, whether synonym you prefer), but not cowardly, in my book.
It also reminded me of something that someone said, I forget where I saw or read this. This person was speaking of 9/11 and said that the total budget for the plotting and implementation of the attack ran something like $500,000. He then contrasted that with U.S. government spending in response to 9/11, which numbers in the trillions. I don't think it requires much imagination to see where repeated instances of this would lead, to a country that spends itself into oblivion. Assuming that Bin Laden was the ringleader of the 9/11 attacks, he said that he wanted to engage the U.S. in economic warfare. Well, I think the end result was beyond his wildest dreams, and he might be well on his way to see his wish, albeit posthumously. Just think of how much it cost to train those NATO troops and Afghan soldiers who engaged in combat with the Taliban, as well as the helicopter and the weaponry that was used in this fight.
To close, a quote from one of Hamid Karzai's senior aides brings back memories. He referred to the attackers as "cowards", as Bush and many others did of the 9/11 attackers. As Bill Maher famously pointed out, risking your own life, no matter how fucked up the objectives, is not exactly cowardly. Many other things (depraved, demented, whether synonym you prefer), but not cowardly, in my book.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Crazy Israel Court Sentences Dog to Death by Stoning
Proof that the Muslims aren't the only crazy religious faction in the Middle East:
A Jerusalem rabbinical court condemned to death by stoning a dog it suspects is the reincarnation of a secular lawyer who insulted the court's judges 20 years ago, Ynet website reported Friday.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Westboro Baptist to Protest in Joplin
I cannot believe how long these people have been doing this without getting their teeth knocked down their throats. BTW, the Westboro Baptists are the religious nuts who protest at military funerals and other gatherings, with signs praising the deaths as God's retribution against the relative tolerance of the U.S. towards homosexuals. Now, they are planning to picket in Joplin, where 125 people died in the tornado this past week.
Monday, May 23, 2011
A View Of Our Political Future
I saw a good video interview with Niall Ferguson, and there were comments. One of these was very good, and the person outlined a series of phases surrounding electoral systems of countries around the world in the wake of austerity measures and bailouts. It ends with the realization amongst the voting masses that their unhappiness at their circumstances is really unrelated to which party happens to be governing. It's a fundamental problem of overpopulation and resource limits that no one in government can hope to solve.
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Huge swings in votes, due to the dissatisfaction of the population.
Countries move sharply to opposite political spectrum.
Phase2:
Population discovers that the recently elected political opposite spectrum is unable to solve what makes them dissatisfied at the first place. Most obvious country: USA.
Phase3:
Population will refuse to vote for traditional political parties. Population will search out unusual third parties. Countries: USA: Tea Party, Finland: True Finns.
Phase4:
Population will realize that unusual third party political forces are unable to govern or being hijacked by traditional political parties, as a front.
Phase5:
It becomes obvious, that the fundamental reasons of dissatisfaction is not a matter of which party governs.
No one in politics can solve the collision course of the following trends:
1) Resources are finite - while all the current econo-political systems are based on the assumption of unlimited resources.
2) Population is increasing *globally* - which is on collision course with the fact of limited resources.
3) While population is growing, less and less people are needed to run the economy.
Unemployment goes global, from structural unemployment ("these jobs are not coming back, there there will be new industries, which will provide new jobs to everyone" to "overpopulation unemployment".
But population is declining in many European countries, how come Spain has over 20% unemployment? True, however "Overpopulation unemployment" is a global trend, shifting work to cheaper labor cost centers (Asia currently) does not negate it. This trend is fully exploited by current leaders in economy, to increase profit, while also say to "expensive" US, European labor to take a cue at the Asian wages. None of this is solving the long-term collision course: it is profitable exploitation financially and empty political rhetoric.
4) While wages have been declining, they can never decline fast and deep enough. The solution is stepping up innovation to deploy more and more technology. In the focus of every single innovation is the desire to get something done with less human intervention. This is of course further eroding the need for labor.
Phase6:
After moving from unsuccessful and ever more expensive bailouts to bailouts, from North America, to Europe, then to Asia, there is less and less appetite for austerity measures. It will become obvious that austerity measures and all bailout packages are not designed and they are unable to solve the long term collision course trends, described above.
This realization will lead to complete political and economical collapse.
It will force to find solution how to deal with the growing population, the acknowledgement that we need socio-political economy that is built on resource-based economy, the complete radical re-thinking of how human labor, wealth creation and distribution can be ft in the world, where there are almost unlimited labor, while the need for labor is steadily decreasing - without any sign that the current models of economies and societies can create a balance of supply and demand.
Since this balance can not, will not be restored - society will have to figure out a complete reset, how humans will exist using the resources most efficiently.
It will not be market economy, as the framework of market economy offers labor market as the solution for human participation in creating and distributing goods and services, but free market economy can no longer provide a supply/demand in this field. Without it the entire system is useless, collapsing, as we are experiencing it now.