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Monday, March 30, 2009
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Another email about my unemployment group, this time from the BBC
As I posted previously, I have a dormant Yahoo! group about unemployment and the recession. The thing is, I created this group a pretty long time ago, it's probably almost two years old. And it hasn't exactly set the world on fire, I have no active members. I have to concede that I haven't tried very hard to promote it, especially after I was able to obtain two jobs last summer.
But anyway, a few weeks ago, I received emails from a documentary filmmaker and the Toronto Globe and Mail who were making stories about the rising unemployment in the U.S. And last week, I received an email from, of all places, the BBC. Yes, the British Broadcasting Corporation wanted to know about my Yahoo! Group, which I felt was amazing, especially since, again, it hasn't won over a lot of people.
A lesser person looking for his or her minute in the sun would have probably contacted the reporter who was writing a story, and told a lot of half-truthes, and it probably would have been printed too. But I didn't write back to him. I didn't know what to say. I don't know where I went wrong with the group, maybe if I had put it on Facebook or something, it would have done better.
Anyway, here's the letter from the BBC.
Hi Jeff
I'm a presenter for BBC World Service radio in London. We are doing a news piece today covering the latest US jobs figures - which again aren't very encouraging. We're trying to talk to someone who has recently become unemployed to talk through what it's been like, and how much confidence they have about the future.
You struck me as ideal because you could give your own personal experience, and talk about the web support group you've just set up - what sort of responses are you getting, etc etc.
Is this something you might be able to do?
If you can give me your phone number I can call you back to discuss further.
Many thanks
Mike Johnson
Mike Johnson
Reporter/presenter, television and radio
BBC News, BBC World Service, Current Affairs, Factual and Learning
Office: London + 44 (0) 207 557 2422
Mobile: + 44 (0) 7710 074459
But anyway, a few weeks ago, I received emails from a documentary filmmaker and the Toronto Globe and Mail who were making stories about the rising unemployment in the U.S. And last week, I received an email from, of all places, the BBC. Yes, the British Broadcasting Corporation wanted to know about my Yahoo! Group, which I felt was amazing, especially since, again, it hasn't won over a lot of people.
A lesser person looking for his or her minute in the sun would have probably contacted the reporter who was writing a story, and told a lot of half-truthes, and it probably would have been printed too. But I didn't write back to him. I didn't know what to say. I don't know where I went wrong with the group, maybe if I had put it on Facebook or something, it would have done better.
Anyway, here's the letter from the BBC.
Hi Jeff
I'm a presenter for BBC World Service radio in London. We are doing a news piece today covering the latest US jobs figures - which again aren't very encouraging. We're trying to talk to someone who has recently become unemployed to talk through what it's been like, and how much confidence they have about the future.
You struck me as ideal because you could give your own personal experience, and talk about the web support group you've just set up - what sort of responses are you getting, etc etc.
Is this something you might be able to do?
If you can give me your phone number I can call you back to discuss further.
Many thanks
Mike Johnson
Mike Johnson
Reporter/presenter, television and radio
BBC News, BBC World Service, Current Affairs, Factual and Learning
Office: London + 44 (0) 207 557 2422
Mobile: + 44 (0) 7710 074459
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Public Transit Ridership Rises To Highest Level in 52 Years
In light of everything else that's going on, this is a very positive and heartening article from the Washington Post, that reveals that public transit ridership is the highest that it's been since the late 1950s. As a non-driver who has long differed with the prevailing ideology that one must have a car, it's really inspiring to see that I am far from alone. I think that even in light of lower gas prices, more people are taking public transit because oftentimes it's shorter to get to where you want to go, and you can also read or do anything you have to. Also, and more importantly, the days of "happy motoring" and driving everywhere you want to go are coming to an end. As energy becomes rarer and more expensive, energy-efficient means of transportation such as subways and buses will be more essential to our society. The infrastructure of our mass transit needs lots of work though. As James Kunstler said, "our railroad system would embaress Bulgaria".
Monday, March 9, 2009
Hanging On, Or How to Get Through a Depression and Enjoy Life
This article I read on the Of Two Minds blog provided good comfort to me. Although I am gainfully employed (for now, anyway), the worsening state of things has provoked in me a growing anxiety. Something fairly dramatic and earth-shattering has also happened at home recently, so I am trying to deal with that as well. But this is a book review of a fairly old book about the life of a young man during the Depression, and how the economic woes of the nation impacted him, his family and his friends. This book review is pretty long, but well worth reading; to sum it up though, as it was apparent that the economy was in dire straits, many had the attitude that things would get better in fairly short order and that a recovery was just around the corner. There was also a stronger streak of individualism and personal responsibility back then. This can be a sneak preview of what's to come in our country, but I feel we will react differently than the people of Flint, Michigan did in the 1930s.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Peak Oil--What Do We Do Now?
The past few months, I have been paying much more attention to the growing economic crisis than I have peak oil, although that will probably change soon, as I find peak oil a much more dire and long-term problem than a slide in our economy. In the meantime, I found this article by Robert Hirsch, in which he notes that although peak oil has retreated into the background due to our economy and the lowering oil prices, it would be a mistake to forget about it, as it will likely confront us again in the near future. Also, I'm not sure how many of you come here, but I am getting a tax return (not sure if that will be enough to get in), and I am seriously considering investing it in a commeodity like oil. I think it's gone about as low as it's going to, and if it goes up again (or even higher than it did), then I don't want to miss out. If you know anything, or where to go, email me.
Peak oil - what do we do now?
by Robert Hirsch
The history of world peak oil production has been truly remarkable. Modern day concerns were rekindled in 1998 when Campbell and Laherrere published their peak oil thinking in Scientific American. Not surprisingly, they were largely ignored. Some in the establishment took the time to utter “Bah-humbug,” but a few independent souls decided to seriously consider the problem.
ASPO was formed soon thereafter and began annual meetings, fostering communication and helping to create increasing interest in the subject. Peak oil concernists began to form a community and momentum increased. Counter arguments buttressing the no-problem point of view came from OPEC, CERA, EIA, IEA, and some of the major oil companies. The denier proclamations grew in intensity, indicating that the serious consideration of peak oil was beginning to trouble parts of the establishment. Various new studies supporting the peak oil threat emanated from independent individuals and groups. Forecasts for the onset of peak oil went from being up to 20 years into the future, to roughly 15 years and then to less. The establishment continued to argue that the problem was so distant that people need not worry.
There were a number of significant milestones along the way - one of special note being Matt Simmons’ book, Twilight in the Desert. As time went on, IEA and some of the major oil companies began to join the list of those who were openly concerned. Momentum grew, influenced in large part by the remarkable increase in oil prices.
In mid-2008 the economic crisis struck. As world economies slowed, oil demand declined. To the surprise of almost everyone, oil prices dropped from near $150 per barrel to less than $40. With gasoline prices in the U.S. retreating to what was considered generally tolerable levels and economic threats avalanching, it’s no wonder that peak oil slid to the back burner of public consciousness.
The world is now in a period of epic economic chaos. People are disoriented and unsure of what it will take to restore their economies. Many serious economists, financiers, and executives are loath to even forecast when an economic recovery might begin. It’s easier for me now to understand how my parents and grandparents must have felt during the 1930s.
But the peak oil problem has not gone away. World liquid fuels production reached a plateau in mid-2004 and has fluctuated within a relatively narrow range in spite of mighty efforts to increase world production. In mid-2008, benefitting from the work of Campbell, Laherrere, Skrebowski, Aleklett, Simmons, Robelius, Gilbert, Bentley, Al Husseini, Deffeyes, Koppelaar, Birol, and others, I came to believe that world liquids production might stay on the existing plateau for the next 2-5 years and then go into a 3-5% per year decline
Recently, OPEC cut back oil production in an attempt to stem the oil price decline. How much might their cutbacks delay the onset of world liquid fuels production decline? Assuming the plateau model and five years to the onset of decline, each million barrels per day of oil production withholding buys roughly three weeks delay, so a steady, continuing reduction of say four million barrels per day over five years might result in a delay in the onset of world oil production decline by maybe three months. That’s not very much.
We’ve now in a period of major human disorientation, but geology does not become disoriented on the human timescale. The impending peak oil problem may now be generally absent from the media and the public consciousness, but it has not gone away. We would do well to continue meaningful studies of peak oil production and mitigation during this period of peak oil quiet. More studies of practical physical and administrative mitigation options are needed. Totally remaking our cities and transportation systems are wonderful goals but will require an extremely long time. In the meantime, we have relatively little in-depth thinking about what we can do when the will-to-act suddenly appears. We need better analyses on such options as rationing (how to do it), carpooling (how to force and police it), telecommuting (how to make it happen), rapidly switching to more fuel efficient vehicles during a deepening recession, rapidly implementing EOR, CTL, shale oil, etc (business-as-usual won’t do), etc. Between now and the wakeup, we can develop carefully thought-out mitigation options for when people are ready to begin to seriously mitigate peak oil. Working on practical solutions represents a high calling.
Robert L. Hirsch is Senior Energy Advisor at MISI. Previously he was Assistant Administrator of U.S. ERDA; EPRI VP; ARCO VP; and Chairman of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems at the National Academies. He was lead author of “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management” (Feb 2005).
Peak oil - what do we do now?
by Robert Hirsch
The history of world peak oil production has been truly remarkable. Modern day concerns were rekindled in 1998 when Campbell and Laherrere published their peak oil thinking in Scientific American. Not surprisingly, they were largely ignored. Some in the establishment took the time to utter “Bah-humbug,” but a few independent souls decided to seriously consider the problem.
ASPO was formed soon thereafter and began annual meetings, fostering communication and helping to create increasing interest in the subject. Peak oil concernists began to form a community and momentum increased. Counter arguments buttressing the no-problem point of view came from OPEC, CERA, EIA, IEA, and some of the major oil companies. The denier proclamations grew in intensity, indicating that the serious consideration of peak oil was beginning to trouble parts of the establishment. Various new studies supporting the peak oil threat emanated from independent individuals and groups. Forecasts for the onset of peak oil went from being up to 20 years into the future, to roughly 15 years and then to less. The establishment continued to argue that the problem was so distant that people need not worry.
There were a number of significant milestones along the way - one of special note being Matt Simmons’ book, Twilight in the Desert. As time went on, IEA and some of the major oil companies began to join the list of those who were openly concerned. Momentum grew, influenced in large part by the remarkable increase in oil prices.
In mid-2008 the economic crisis struck. As world economies slowed, oil demand declined. To the surprise of almost everyone, oil prices dropped from near $150 per barrel to less than $40. With gasoline prices in the U.S. retreating to what was considered generally tolerable levels and economic threats avalanching, it’s no wonder that peak oil slid to the back burner of public consciousness.
The world is now in a period of epic economic chaos. People are disoriented and unsure of what it will take to restore their economies. Many serious economists, financiers, and executives are loath to even forecast when an economic recovery might begin. It’s easier for me now to understand how my parents and grandparents must have felt during the 1930s.
But the peak oil problem has not gone away. World liquid fuels production reached a plateau in mid-2004 and has fluctuated within a relatively narrow range in spite of mighty efforts to increase world production. In mid-2008, benefitting from the work of Campbell, Laherrere, Skrebowski, Aleklett, Simmons, Robelius, Gilbert, Bentley, Al Husseini, Deffeyes, Koppelaar, Birol, and others, I came to believe that world liquids production might stay on the existing plateau for the next 2-5 years and then go into a 3-5% per year decline
Recently, OPEC cut back oil production in an attempt to stem the oil price decline. How much might their cutbacks delay the onset of world liquid fuels production decline? Assuming the plateau model and five years to the onset of decline, each million barrels per day of oil production withholding buys roughly three weeks delay, so a steady, continuing reduction of say four million barrels per day over five years might result in a delay in the onset of world oil production decline by maybe three months. That’s not very much.
We’ve now in a period of major human disorientation, but geology does not become disoriented on the human timescale. The impending peak oil problem may now be generally absent from the media and the public consciousness, but it has not gone away. We would do well to continue meaningful studies of peak oil production and mitigation during this period of peak oil quiet. More studies of practical physical and administrative mitigation options are needed. Totally remaking our cities and transportation systems are wonderful goals but will require an extremely long time. In the meantime, we have relatively little in-depth thinking about what we can do when the will-to-act suddenly appears. We need better analyses on such options as rationing (how to do it), carpooling (how to force and police it), telecommuting (how to make it happen), rapidly switching to more fuel efficient vehicles during a deepening recession, rapidly implementing EOR, CTL, shale oil, etc (business-as-usual won’t do), etc. Between now and the wakeup, we can develop carefully thought-out mitigation options for when people are ready to begin to seriously mitigate peak oil. Working on practical solutions represents a high calling.
Robert L. Hirsch is Senior Energy Advisor at MISI. Previously he was Assistant Administrator of U.S. ERDA; EPRI VP; ARCO VP; and Chairman of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems at the National Academies. He was lead author of “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management” (Feb 2005).
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Stimulus Package Explained
This is a funny post (while being all too true), from The Big Picture blog, although it's also making the rounds via email as well:
Sometime this year, taxpayers will receive an Economic Stimulus Payment. This is a very exciting new program that I will explain using the Q and A format:
Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment?
A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.
Q. Where will the government get this money?
A. From taxpayers.
Q. So the government is giving me back my own money?
A. No, they are borrowing it from China. Your children are expected to repay the Chinese.
Q. What is the purpose of this payment?
A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.
Q. But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China ?
A. Shut up.
Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the US economy by spending your stimulus check wisely:
If you spend that money at Wal-Mart, all the money will go to China.
If you spend it on gasoline it will go to Hugo Chavez, the Arabs and Al Queda
If you purchase a computer it will go to Taiwan.
If you purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala (unless you buy organic).
If you buy a car it will go to Japan and Korea.
If you purchase prescription drugs it will go to India
If you purchase heroin it will go to the Taliban in Afghanistan
If you give it to a charitable cause, it will go to Nigeria.
And none of it will help the American economy. We need to keep that money here in America. You can keep the money in America by spending it at yard sales, going to a baseball game, or spend it on prostitutes, beer (domestic only), or tattoos, since those are the only businesses still in the US.
It's me again. This is very funny, and tragic at the same time. It's bad enough that 70 percent of our GDP (or roughly that) is built upon consumption, or consumer spending. So according to our government, you're not supposed to save or service your debt, but when you get this stimulus, you're supposed to spend it, right? This results in ecomomic growth, according to them. However, as this post so simply points out, you are really not stimulating our economy by spending your stimulus check on consumption, but rather, some other nation's economy. And besides, as this post also points out, it isn't our money anyway.
Sometime this year, taxpayers will receive an Economic Stimulus Payment. This is a very exciting new program that I will explain using the Q and A format:
Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment?
A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.
Q. Where will the government get this money?
A. From taxpayers.
Q. So the government is giving me back my own money?
A. No, they are borrowing it from China. Your children are expected to repay the Chinese.
Q. What is the purpose of this payment?
A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.
Q. But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China ?
A. Shut up.
Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the US economy by spending your stimulus check wisely:
If you spend that money at Wal-Mart, all the money will go to China.
If you spend it on gasoline it will go to Hugo Chavez, the Arabs and Al Queda
If you purchase a computer it will go to Taiwan.
If you purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala (unless you buy organic).
If you buy a car it will go to Japan and Korea.
If you purchase prescription drugs it will go to India
If you purchase heroin it will go to the Taliban in Afghanistan
If you give it to a charitable cause, it will go to Nigeria.
And none of it will help the American economy. We need to keep that money here in America. You can keep the money in America by spending it at yard sales, going to a baseball game, or spend it on prostitutes, beer (domestic only), or tattoos, since those are the only businesses still in the US.
It's me again. This is very funny, and tragic at the same time. It's bad enough that 70 percent of our GDP (or roughly that) is built upon consumption, or consumer spending. So according to our government, you're not supposed to save or service your debt, but when you get this stimulus, you're supposed to spend it, right? This results in ecomomic growth, according to them. However, as this post so simply points out, you are really not stimulating our economy by spending your stimulus check on consumption, but rather, some other nation's economy. And besides, as this post also points out, it isn't our money anyway.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
A Documentary in the Works on the Effects of Being Laid Off
Some time ago, I posted on my plans to launch an online support group on the (at the time) pending recession and unemployment. While I did launch the group (via Yahoo Groups), for whatever reason, people did not exactly sign up in droves. In addition, I was able to find employment not long thereafter. It is weird though. Now and again, some people must Google terms like "unemployment" and "recession", and come across the post that I made on this blog. So they'll comment and share their stories. Being as it would be a chore to look for it, I will have to seek it out, just to compile the comments and share them with you.
Even more strange, yesterday, I received two emails, sent within hours. One was from the Canadian newspaper, Globe and Mail, based in Toronto. The other was from a documentary film company named Optomen. Both solicted my assistance, the Globe and Mail for a story on unemployment, and Optomen for a documentary they are making about the issue. I was very humbled, and it made me feel bad that I did not put more of an effort in to reach out to potential visitors to a virtual support group. But, one would figure it'd be natural for people to want to seek out these outlets, as losing your job hits many of us hard. But, it's also stigmatizing. No one likes acknowledging to others that they do not have a job, despite the benefit of ayonomity that the Internet provide.
However, I received this letter from the Development Producer of this company, Optomen USA. They are in the process of working on a documentary about people hit by unemployment, and are looking for stories and experiences. If you are interested in telling your story, you can send an email to mylaidofflife@gmail.com. The full letter will be at the end of this post.
BTW, I am blessed in that I am working, and have just started my final class before I get my paralegal certification. It is probably going to be a bitch to get a job in a law firm for the near-term future, but I am confident that I will get something. I really do wish I could post more, but when I do not post for awhile, that means that things are going well. I simply have too many things going on to make the time to blog regularly. But, if you see blogs appearing from me on a fairly regular basis, then things probably are not going so well in terms of my career. But, I would have probably already blogged about it by the time that would appear obvious.
Jeff
Jeff,
I saw your posting on The Unruly Pedestrian blog about the online support group you are starting for those who are laid off or unemployed. I am reaching out to you in hopes that you can help us spread the word about a tv documentary currently in production that is looking to highlight and follow those who have recently been laid off.
Optomen Productions, an international television production company with offices in New York and London, is developing a documentary on the effects of being laid off and strategies people are using to try to find new employment in this turbulent economy. We are looking for job seekers who might be willing to be followed for the documentary.
Anyone interested in sharing their story is invited to send a brief paragraph to mylaidofflife@gmail.com with the basic information of where they were laid off from, when they were laid off and what their plans are for the future. They are welcome to include additional information that they think might be appropriate.
This is a very important topic - and one that is currently affecting hundreds of thousands of people in the U.S.
Thank you in advance for any assistance you can give us in locating people with compelling stories to share.
Regards,
Lynne
Lynne Hoppe
Development Producer
Optomen USA
100 Sixth Avenue
New York, NY 10013
212.431.4361
lynne.hoppe@optomenusa.com
Even more strange, yesterday, I received two emails, sent within hours. One was from the Canadian newspaper, Globe and Mail, based in Toronto. The other was from a documentary film company named Optomen. Both solicted my assistance, the Globe and Mail for a story on unemployment, and Optomen for a documentary they are making about the issue. I was very humbled, and it made me feel bad that I did not put more of an effort in to reach out to potential visitors to a virtual support group. But, one would figure it'd be natural for people to want to seek out these outlets, as losing your job hits many of us hard. But, it's also stigmatizing. No one likes acknowledging to others that they do not have a job, despite the benefit of ayonomity that the Internet provide.
However, I received this letter from the Development Producer of this company, Optomen USA. They are in the process of working on a documentary about people hit by unemployment, and are looking for stories and experiences. If you are interested in telling your story, you can send an email to mylaidofflife@gmail.com. The full letter will be at the end of this post.
BTW, I am blessed in that I am working, and have just started my final class before I get my paralegal certification. It is probably going to be a bitch to get a job in a law firm for the near-term future, but I am confident that I will get something. I really do wish I could post more, but when I do not post for awhile, that means that things are going well. I simply have too many things going on to make the time to blog regularly. But, if you see blogs appearing from me on a fairly regular basis, then things probably are not going so well in terms of my career. But, I would have probably already blogged about it by the time that would appear obvious.
Jeff
Jeff,
I saw your posting on The Unruly Pedestrian blog about the online support group you are starting for those who are laid off or unemployed. I am reaching out to you in hopes that you can help us spread the word about a tv documentary currently in production that is looking to highlight and follow those who have recently been laid off.
Optomen Productions, an international television production company with offices in New York and London, is developing a documentary on the effects of being laid off and strategies people are using to try to find new employment in this turbulent economy. We are looking for job seekers who might be willing to be followed for the documentary.
Anyone interested in sharing their story is invited to send a brief paragraph to mylaidofflife@gmail.com with the basic information of where they were laid off from, when they were laid off and what their plans are for the future. They are welcome to include additional information that they think might be appropriate.
This is a very important topic - and one that is currently affecting hundreds of thousands of people in the U.S.
Thank you in advance for any assistance you can give us in locating people with compelling stories to share.
Regards,
Lynne
Lynne Hoppe
Development Producer
Optomen USA
100 Sixth Avenue
New York, NY 10013
212.431.4361
lynne.hoppe@optomenusa.com
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